Bitcoin at a historic crossroads: Does the 4-year cycle still exist?

Bitcoin Enters 4-Year Cycle “Test of Fire” – New Push from Institutional Capital

New price peaks and questions about historical cycles
Bitcoin just surpassed $124,000 , marking an all-time high and reigniting debate about the four-year halving cycle.

Joe Consorti, Theya's chief development officer, said the fourth quarter of this year will be a test of whether the old rules still hold true or the market has entered a new phase.

“This is also Bitcoin’s longest bull market, lasting 21 months compared to the previous record of 13 months. The question is: is the four-year cycle dead?” he said.

Institutional capital changes the game
According to Consorti, the differentiating factor now is the huge inflow of capital from traditional finance , especially through spot Bitcoin ETFs .

Investors such as pension funds, college endowments, and large institutions buy to hold for the long term, with little intention of selling.

He cited Harvard’s purchase of 1.9 million shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust worth $116.7 million in the second quarter. These “long-term players” have made the market structure more stable, reducing volatility while maintaining an upward trend.

Quarter 4 – the decisive moment
Consorti predicts that easing financial conditions, a return of institutional capital after the summer , and sustained demand from ETFs, corporates, and the ultra-wealthy will create the foundation for a new rally.

He describes the current market as no longer one of booms and busts, but rather “a steady uptrend interspersed with periods of consolidation and rapid expansion.”

However, he stressed: “Only after the fourth quarter of this year will we know for sure whether the four-year cycle has really ended. Let's wait and see.”